Amazon ends deal with 25,000 California websites

Gov. Jerry Brown has signed into law California's tax on Internet sales through affiliate advertising which will immediately cut small-business website revenue 20% to 30%, experts say.

The bill, AB 28X, takes effect immediately. The state Board of Equalization says the tax will raise $200 million a year, but critics claim it will raise nothing because online retailers will end their affiliate programs rather than collect the tax.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/amazon-306409-affiliate-california.html

Fed's Massive Stimulus Had Little Impact: Greenspan

The Federal Reserve's massive stimulus program had little impact on the U.S. economy besides weakening the dollar and helping U.S. exports, Federal Reserve Governor Alan Greenspan told CNBC Thursday.

In a blunt critique of his successor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Greenspan said the $2 trillion in quantative easing over the past two years had done little to loosen credit and boost the economy.

"There is no evidence that huge inflow of money into the system basically worked," Greenspan said in a live interview.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43598606

Forecasts for Growth Drop, Some Sharply

A drumbeat of disappointing data about consumer behavior, factory sales and weak hiring in recent weeks has prompted economists to ratchet down their 2011 economic forecasts to as little as half what they expected at the beginning of the year.

Two months ago, Goldman Sachs projected that the economy would grow at a 4 percent annual rate in the quarter ending in June. The company now expects the government to report no more than 2 percent growth when data for the second quarter is released in a few weeks.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a research firm, projected 3.5 percent growth back in April and is now down to just 2.1 percent for this quarter.

Both these firms, well respected in their analysis, have cut their forecasts for the second half of the year as well. Then this week, the Federal Reserve downgraded its projections for the full year, to under 3 percent growth. It started the year with guidance as high as 3.9 percent.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43534613

Consumer spending breaks 10-month rising streak

Consumer spending failed to rise in May, breaking a string of 10 straight months of gains, as households struggled with rising prices and automakers could not deliver the models Americans wanted.

When adjusted for inflation, spending slipped 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department said on Monday. It was the second consecutive monthly drop.

The report, which confirmed that underlying inflation had quickened, suggested consumer spending would offer little support to the economy in the second quarter. In the first three months of the year, it advanced at a modest 2.2 percent annual rate, held back by the weak U.S. labor market.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110627/bs_nm/us_economy

US budget office warns on debt explosion

The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that an explosion in public borrowing could lead to debt levels as high as 100 per cent of the gross domestic product by 2021, if the current course remains unchanged.

The report by the independent budgetary think tank, released overnight, notes that US federal debt will reach roughly 70 per cent of GDP by the end of the year, the highest percentage since just after World War II.

That figure compares with a debt level of 40 per cent of GDP at the end of 2008, which compares favourably with the 40-year average of 37 per cent.

Advertisement: Story continues below The non-partisan CBO also said that if tax cuts enacted since 2001 continue to be extended, the country’s debt could be nearly twice the GDP by 2035.

The country’s total debt reached its legal limit of $US14.29 trillion ($13.58 trillion) in mid-May, and pressure has grown to raise that level ahead of an August 2 deadline. After that, says the US Treasury Department, the United States would be in default.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/us-budget-office-warns-on-debt-explosion-20110623-1ggeo.html

Federal Reserve admits US economy is struggling

The Federal Reserve has again cut its growth forecasts for the US economy and admitted that "longer-lasting" factors may help explain the current slowing in the recovery.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/interestrates/8592432/Federal-Reserve-admits-US-economy-is-struggling.html

Bernanke Lies Half Life Reduced To Under One Day As Aflac Scrambling To Shore Up Liquidity On European Exposure

Yesterday during his press conference, the Chairman uttered his latest lie: "We have asked the banks to essentially do stress tests and ask, looking at all their positions, all their hedges, what would the effect on their capital be if -- if Greece defaulted...The answer is that the effects are very small.” Enter Aflac to prove that the half life of Bernanke's lies is now under 24 hours. From Bloomberg: "Aflac Inc. (AFL), the largest seller of supplemental health insurance, may issue as much as 100 billion yen ($1.24 billion) in debt as it records losses tied to investments in banks from Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bernanke-lies-half-life-reduced-under-one-day-aflac-scrambling-shore-liquidity-european-expo

Geithner: Taxes on ‘Small Business’ Must Rise So Government Doesn’t ‘Shrink’

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the House Small Business Committee on Wednesday that the Obama administration believes taxes on small business must increase so the administration does not have to “shrink the overall size of government programs.”

The administration’s plan to raise the tax rate on small businesses is part of its plan to raise taxes on all Americans who make more than $250,000 per year—including businesses that file taxes the same way individuals and families do.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/geithner-taxes-small-business-must-rise

Releasing Oil Reserves Called a 'Sign of Desperation'

The announcement by the US Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency that the latter would be releasing 60 million barrels of government-held stocks, immediately increasing global supply by nearly 2.5 percent, is "a sign of desperation. You don't do this if you have anything left in your arsenal," Mark Fisher, founder and CEO of MBF Clearing, told CNBC Thursday.

"This is a psychological mechanism. I think that in this case, the government is bringing a knife to a gun fight, when in reality there's only an 'x' amount of supply," Fisher said.

"I mean what happens if there is, God forbid, another Katrina this summer or there's another disaster someplace else in the world, and you really need to release the reserves?"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43511270

BIS warns low rates may create 'financial distortions'

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that low interest rates across the globe are a threat to world financial stability.

The BIS warned low cost of borrowing had resulted in a credit and property price boom that was fuelling inflation, especially in emerging economies.

Central banks across the globe have cut interest rates in an attempt to boost growth after the 2008 financial crisis.

However, BIS warned that the policy may prove to be counterproductive.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13922857

Dollar seen losing global reserve status

The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn.

More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QWvsglhO

Treasury Auctions To Take US Over Debt Ceiling on Monday

The Treasury Department auctioned $56 billion in new debt Tuesday and Wednesday, enough to take the U.S. over its federal debt ceiling when the three- and 10-year notes settle on Monday.

Treasury officials last month flagged May 16 as the day the government would hit the $14.294 trillion debt limit.

The U.S. is selling $72 billion in new debt over three days this week. The Treasury auctioned $32 billion in three-year notes Tuesday and $24 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday, and will sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. All of the auctions will settle Monday.

As of Tuesday, total debt subject to the limit was $14.274 trillion, according to the Treasury Department.

The Obama administration has asked Congress to raise the limit, warning that failure to act could lead the government to default by Aug. 2--and could spook investors even before then.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201105111542dowjonesdjonline000477&title=treasury-auctions-to-take-us-over-debt-ceiling-on-monday

Roubini: Jobless Rate Will Jump to Near 10 Percent as Economy Slows

Expect unemployment to return to nearly 10 percent within a year and for the economy to hit the brakes, slowing to 2 percent, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini.

The U.S. economy faltered to 1.8 percent growth in the first quarter, although some Federal Reserve members still expect growth on the order of 3 percent or higher in 2011.

“Things are going to be much more difficult than they’ve been so far,” Roubini said at a panel debate on alternative investments taking place in Las Vegas, reported CNBC. The error being made is not taking into account the seriousness of the Europe’s debt problems, Roubini said.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Roubini-us-economy-fed/2011/05/12/id/396131

Housing crash is getting worse

Average home prices are down 8% from a year ago, 3% over the quarter, and are falling at about 1% every month, according to Zillow.

And the percentage of homeowners in negative-equity positions — with a home worth less than its mortgage — has rocketed to 28%, a new crisis high.

Zillow now predicts prices will fall about 8% this year and says it no longer expects the market to bottom before 2012.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-crash-is-getting-worse-2011-05-09?link=MW_latest_news

Smithfield CEO: Higher Food Prices Are Here to Stay

The CEO of Smithfield Farms, the largest pork producer in the US. Among other things he said:

“Maybe to someone in the upper incomes it doesn’t matter what the price of a pound of bacon is, or what the price of a ham, or the price of a pound of pork chops is,” he says. “But for many of the customers we sell to, it really does matter.” Workers can share cars when the price of oil rises, he quips, but “you can’t share your food.”

Mr. Pope also worries about the impact on farmers, who are leveraging up operations to afford the ever-rising price of land and fertilizer that has resulted from the increased corn demand. “There are record prices for livestock but farmers are exiting the business!” he exclaims. “Why? Farmers know they won’t make money.”

Weather is a factor, too. “We’ve had the luxury for the last three years of extremely good corn crops, with high yields and good growing conditions. We are just one bad weather event away from potentially $10 corn, which once again is another 50% increase in the input cost to our live production.”

…Not all companies will survive this economic whirlwind. Mr. Pope recalls what happened the last time there was a surge in corn prices, in 2008: “The largest chicken processor in the United States, Pilgrim’s Pride, filed for bankruptcy.” They “couldn’t raise prices, so their cost of production went up dramatically.” Could it happen again? “It darn well could!” Mr. Pope exclaims.

…Mr. Pope says the “losers” here “are the consumer, who’s going to have to pay more for the product, and the livestock farmer who’s going to have to buy high-priced grain that he can’t afford because he’s stretching his own lines of credit. The hog farmer . . . is in jeopardy of simply going out of business ’cause he doesn’t have the cash liquidity to even pay for the corn to pay for the input to raise the hog. It’s a dynamic that we can’t sustain.”

http://gainspainscapital.com/?p=309

Government Raids PRIVATE Pensions To Pay For Spending

The Irish government plans to institute a tax on private pensions to drive jobs growth, according to its jobs program strategy, delivered today.

Without the ability sell debt due to soaring interest rates, and with severe spending rules in place due to its EU-IMF bailout, Ireland has few ways of spending to stimulate the economy. Today's jobs program includes specific tax increases, including the tax on pensions, aimed at keeping government jobs spending from adding to the national debt.

The tax on private pensions will be 0.6%, and last for four years, according to the report.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bombshell-government-raids-private-pensions-to-pay-for-jobs-program-2011-5#ixzz1MIT8sFjP


http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bombshell-government-raids-private-pensions-to-pay-for-jobs-program-2011-5

PIMCO raises bet against U.S. government debt

The increase, albeit small, follows Gross' move to ratchet up his bearishness in March by taking his initial short position in U.S. government-related debt, which includes Treasuries, TIPS, agencies, interest rate swaps, Treasury futures and options and FDIC-guaranteed corporate securities.

The $240 billion Total Return fund also raised its cash position to 37 percent in April from 31 percent in March, added Pacific Investment Management Co, which oversees $1.2 trillion in assets.

The Total Return fund took down its mortgage exposure to 24 percent in April from 28 percent the previous month.

The fund also decreased its allocation in investment-grade credit to 17 percent in April from 18 percent in March and junk bonds to 5 percent in April from 6 percent the previous month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/09/us-investing-pimco-fund-idUSTRE7486LU20110509

China May Buy $1 TRILLION of Gold: Bloomberg

In an otherwise quiet article about central banks today, Bloomberg quoted an analyst who says China may use up to a third of their $3 trillion in foreign reserves to purchase gold.

China has been moving away from the dollar, and into alternative stores of wealth for years now.

But $1 trillion into gold? If it happens, such a large move would further threaten the dollar's status as reserve currency. It would also provide further buying pressure in gold for years to come (as the dollar crumples into a pitiful heap on the floor).

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/headlines/1090

Our taxes barely cover our social-welfare programs; everything else is on credit.

All federal revenues—from income taxes, Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, corporate taxes, excise taxes, customs duties, estate and gift taxes and user fees—are consumed to pay Americans myriad federal benefits. These include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, food stamps, farm subsidies and the many other forms of social insurance and welfare, including economic stimulus and job-creation.

Put another way: The federal government borrows everything it needs to operate what we ought to think of as the government as an institution, such as defense (including the support of troops in Afghanistan and Iraq); highway construction; foreign aid; aid to states and localities; land management and pollution control; regulation of this, that and all the other things; scientific research; payment of federal employees' salaries; and payment of interest on the national debt.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203703404576291230749135162.html

10 States Where Pensions Are Running Out of Money

Corporate pensions, municipal pensions, state pensions — each category has funds that have run out of money and certainly many are running low. The fate of the UAW pensions was a critical part of the US bailout of the auto industry. Eventually, the unions received equity in Chrysler and GM, among other things. They are not the only large American companies with underfunded pensions; they are just the most recent and visible examples.

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/112640/states-pensions-public-sector-247